When GHW Bush failed to deliver the coup de grace to Saddam Hussein’s Iraq, and failed to support the uprisings against him in the aftermath of the 1st Gulf War, the stage was set for the current conflict.

Likewise, the failure of Clinton and the UN to effectively deal with Somolia in the 1990s leads us to the ongoing problems in that region, which has now brought us piracy at a level unseen for many decades.  And now, this piracy threatens the lifeblood of modern civilization - oil.

From FT.Com:

A Saudi supertanker laden with an estimated 2m barrels of oil that was seized by pirates was on Tuesday confirmed to be anchored off the coast of Somalia.

While most other seizures have been of vessels heading into or out of the Suez Canal, the latest incident will raise question marks about the safety of the route from the Arabian Gulf to the Cape of Good Hope – a route taken by the largest oil tankers heading from the world’s main oil-producing regions to both Europe and North America.

The development therefore puts at risk a far higher proportion of the world’s energy shipments than the 12 per cent that shipping organisations had already considered in danger. “That route from the Cape to the Gulf was not considered the riskiest route,” said Mr Mukundan.

What is the response of the US Military (from AFP)?

The top US military officer said Monday he was “stunned” by the reach of the Somali pirates who seized a Saudi supertanker off the east coast of Africa, calling piracy a growing problem that needs to be addressed.

But Admiral Michael Mullen, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, said there were limits to what the world’s navies could do once a ship has been captured because national governments often preferred to pay pirates ransom. 

That’s right, the US Navy and Marines will…do nothing…

“…once they get to a point where they can board, it becomes very difficult to get them off, because, clearly, now they hold hostages.

“The question then becomes, well, what do you do about the hostages? And that’s where the standoff is.

“That’s a national question to ask based on the flag of the vessel. And the countries by and large have been paying the ransom that the pirates have asked,” he said.

So once again, our miltary leadership acts more like international lawyers than warriors.  And the willingness of the victims to pay ransom for the ships and crews trumps action against the pirates.

But things may be beginning to change (courtesy Times Online):

The furious Saudi foreign minister said the banditry was akin to terrorism and demanded an international crackdown on the pirates.

Prince Saud Al-Faisal said: “Piracy, like terrorism, is a disease which is against everybody, and everybody must address it together.

“This outrageous act by the pirates, I think, will only reinforce the resolve of the countries of the Red Sea and internationally to fight piracy,”

The prince suggested that several nations in the Red Sea region were willing to form a coalition to combat the ascendency of pirates in the Gulf of Aden and surrounding waters. 

The Saudi’s, and the other oil producing states in the Persian Gulf, certainly have the resources, and the need to protect their tankers and merchant ships.  They may not have the military hardware or trained personnel to protect their shipping, or to strike back against the pirates.

But the level of piracy, and the growing reach of the pirates, should be sounding warning bells in Washington DC, Beijing, and other states dependent upon trade trasiting the horn of Africa.

The International Maritime Bureau has reported that at least 83 ships have been attacked off Somalia since January, of which 33 were hijacked. Of those, 12 vessels and more than 200 crew were still in the hands of pirates.

There is no doubt that the Pirates base of operations is Somalia.  When the last group of warlords that exerted some type of central control (the Islamic Courts - not a nice bunch of guys) was ousted in 2007, the last vestiges of government in the area went with them.

There is no doubt the the US and UN bungled the mission to Somalia in the 90’s, leaving things worse than when they arrived.  There is also no doubt that the world missed an opportunity after the overthrow of the Islamic Courts to attempt to impose order on Somalia.

There can be no doubt that Somalia will continue to be a festering sore of lawlessness, misery, and piracy until the warlords are put down, and order is restored.

It will not be cheap, and it will not be easy.  But having just come through the crucible of the Iraq War, there is no doubt that America has the military know how and skill set - what we used to call “lessons learned” (usually the hard way).  The Gulf States have the financial resources, and almost as importantly, the proper religious leanings to bankroll actions to intervene and start the rebuilding process.  But America does not have the manpower to take on this task, while the Afghanistan conflict continues to brew.

However, the Chinese have the manpower to spare, and financial interests in Africa, and are also dependent upon Persian Gulf oil. 

So, perhaps we have a clear opportunity for President Elect Obama to use some of his vaunted Worlwide Political Capitol, and use Petro State money, with Chinese Troops, and American know how, to solve a pressing problem, and restore some order to one of the most chaotic failed states in Africa.

Just a suggestion.

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